 Posted: Mon 3:32, 28 Mar 2011 Post subject: Mr Song - crisis has not yet bottomed out calm jus |
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| recent economic seemingly back to normal, the financial crisis seems to have forgotten from you mind, but Mr Song is still unusual to adhere to the bad-mouthing gay American
the last period of analysis, it should be said or not without insight. Although the Song of the conclusions always prefer to exaggerate the conspiracy theory is not so convincing, but at least he derived the logic of what the process itself is quite in place, it is also useful Reporter: We look at the world economy, China's economy is now close to the second quarter, Paul 8, European economic data have improved, many people think that the green shoots of economic recovery phase, optimistic view to restore the U.S. economy will grow next year, the economy has been the worst, you agree? Song Teacher: I do not agree with this view, a two-level, first from a historical perspective, the Global Finance Academy to do a series of comparison, contrast this with the 1929 crisis, the extent and speed , we conclude that it is less than 29 years the level of so serious, probably about half, but the real speed and the impact the crisis was greater than 1929. In other words, this crisis is different from all other crises since 1929, closer to the Great Depression crisis. If seen from this analysis, then, if this is a serious structural crisis in the world, governments are now in the end what do they really thorough adjustment of economic structure do, such as the United States ahead of the consumer-driven asset bubble fueled economy growth pattern, and Asian countries to export-oriented production model is to conduct a thorough change in you is to carry out a thorough shake-up? Actually, no. Governments are now doing, is printing money to fill the hole, trying to save the crisis, but the real deep-seated contradictions in economic structure, settlement and adjustment, have not had time to start. In this sense, General, the root causes of the crisis has not been completely resolved, so that we can count on a serious crisis will be within 12 months to rebound up, intellectually speaking, I think it is unrealistic ideas, such optimism seems to me that there is no basis, from the perspective of history happened. from a subjective factor, the first may be objective about the situation, the 1929 recession that followed, there is indeed a bear market rally, that is, the famous 1930 bear market rally, the rally nearly 50%, but it faster in 1931 with the collapse of Austria UniCredit, a financial crisis quickly spread to the world, precisely because of that crisis in 1931 led to a decade of the Great Depression. now, in my opinion, we are in a typical bear market rally on rate, not the real solution to all economic problems, to solve all structural problems, to solve the problem all bilk, after bottoming solid a strong reaction from the beginning, not the situation. This is an objective analysis. it from a subjective analysis, the purpose of financial crisis if the final plan is to advance the global common currency significantly ahead of the implementation, I think this goal has not been achieved, if the crisis point, once economic recovery, national prosperity, all safe and sound, countries develop their own things, well, things do not follow this, and we only in crisis situations, be willing to sacrifice monetary sovereignty to sit together and discuss the problem, if the economy is good, there is no need to attend such a meeting. So from both of view, I think that is not really a bottom. Reporter: The biggest risk is that a sharp contraction of consumer crisis, you in the book emphasizes This crisis has not bottomed out, but worse, the main reason for that? Is the world economy will experience you mentioned spending fourteen years of the Great Depression, the green leaves will lose its credit cultivate the soil? Song Teacher: In the short term worsening of the crisis is mainly reflected in several aspects, first, the U.S. banking system bad debts have not been really clear, and even has not been a real find. If we look at the U.S. Congress recently released a research report, we reached a very alarming figures, the U.S. government, including direct and indirect guarantee the Federal Reserve (the assets), the total losses in the financial scale of the tsunami reached 23 trillion dollars, which is very, very alarming figures. Probably only one of the Federal Reserve reported a 6.8 trillion. In fact the biggest loss will reach 23 trillion, this is not a minority, may be nearly twice the U.S. economy GDP. This is the congressional disclosure of data, this data shows the problem? Some time ago we saw improvement in all the U.S. banking system, the so-called earnings data are unreliable, a main reason, for example, a series of data we come to do research, the U.S. banking system, if the balance sheet together, are called credit default swaps derivatives to protect the assets of 14 trillion, the Fed began before the rescue, the banks balance sheet, a large amount of 14 trillion, mainly through credit default swaps market to protect , is called CDS, a provider who is it it? That the AIG insurance companies and some hedge companies. However, since November 2008 as, AIG and other insurance companies, including hedge funds, large losses, a large area by the government to save, protect the banks between now and the main body of the balance sheet is not an insurance company, and is not the hedge funds, and but the U.S. government itself. In other words, the U.S. government guarantees of bank reconciliations appearances corresponding bank assets. explain what the problem? If it is not government guaranteed, and replaced with a real pure market operation, exposed by the entire banking system costs, due to government guarantees, low cost, the U.S. government bet your credit, if AIG and other companies are now replaced by a sharp rise in costs, the bank system profits will quickly disappear, and soon becomes negative. I think a large part of the middle 23 trillion, the U.S. government to replace the market economy, the function of credit default swaps. - U.S. government intervention to make these systems, the corresponding market factors out, so that artificially lower the cost, resulting in a profit, this is one aspect. second aspect, the U.S. government through 2000 billion rescue AIG, the AIG asset losses increased significantly as banks, in fact, AIG lost to the banking system, the U.S. government's money through the AIG plan directly to the bank account, so that Bank first quarter profit of 71 billion U.S. dollars, these profits are unreliable in my opinion, the real and potential problems and losses are not really disclosed. third problem is that the European banking system, and now the potential problems, bad debt total assets to 18.2 trillion euros, the total balance sheet of European banks about 40%. We now see the European banking system, has now published the so-called losses, probably only about 26% of potential problems, in fact, more bad loans problem has not been true disclosed. If these two numbers together, the equivalent of the next several years in Europe and the United States needs to continue to fill the financial hole, which is the basic judgments. To completely clean up the bad debts not more than five years, there is no huge investment and a lot of human and material resources, it is impossible to thousands of financial institutions and the logic to figure out the problem of bad debts. So from two o'clock in terms of the financial system and potential problems have not been fully exposed, but was covered up, the image that if a bed, bedding, has been covered with centipedes and cockroaches these things, plus the U.S. government's approach is a quilt cover it, if centipedes, cockroaches climb, the plus one Jinbei, to give you the feeling that the bed looked very beautiful, you have to really look at it opened, there are all these things. so in that sense, the financial system crisis is not over, this is the short term. the medium term, then within the next three months, we saw that all consumer credit, credit card debt, including local government bonds, commercial real estate debt, the default rate increased significantly at the same pace, this year will be reached the end of a historic peak. In the coming months, especially in the time inside the end of 2009, the entire global financial system in a high-risk state. the long term, the U.S. consumer credit, consumption is the main force driving economic growth, 72% of U.S. GDP comes from the incremental spending. The United States is emerging consumer issues, we now see the United States in 1946 and 1964 after the war this time, we call the birth of the 79 million baby boomers, this group of people born in 1962, accounting for the entire U.S. population 1 / 3. Annual statistical data, according to the U.S., 47-year-old American consumer the most productive years, after a 47-year-old consumer will gradually decline, as people age,dre beats headphones, and functional decline, including the expected decline in future income will shrink consumption. The question now is, which 7900 people from sites counted in 1962 to 2009, exactly 47 years this year, which this year will be 7900 million people in the highest level of consumption, too, after this year, according to the normal laws of history, the whole Group 7900 people will gradually decline into the consumer channel, more serious is that 7900 people is not to save money on bank accounts, and the large number of pension invested in the stock market and all financial markets, and in the financial tsunami, many who lost nearly half of the wealth. In such cases, they will accelerate the tightening their belts, save money, frugal consumption. In this case, the peak has passed, it will be the next wave of population peak around 2024, so there is the middle of 14-year decline in consumption, which is caused by the population cycle. I personally do not think the fiscal policy and monetary policy for the transfer, even if interest rates fall to zero, even engage in large-scale public works continue to advance, it is impossible to reverse the cycle of people. Article xiao long-term future consumption so it is difficult to avoid. So in the long run, the U.S. economic recovery is extremely long and painful process, there may be multiple middle repeated, and could not get out of a V shaped rebound, as most people know that. the stock market now is not only Hong Kong or mainland China, or the United States, or world, actually has the V shaped factors have estimates for the rebound, and now the stock market price already includes the assumption that V-shaped rebound, but the fact is that the economy V shaped rebound unlikely that substantial adjustments in the stock market in my opinion inevitable. investment advice ordinary investors may be concerned about oil Although Mr Song of the world economy, the world's financial system also has its own unique view, but for investment banking, Mr Song admits that she has no particular special way. Direction for the average investor, Mr Song and rarely provide their own recommendations. he expected the United States will develop low-carbon economy, in order to offset the decline in the negative consumer impact. If the price of a barrel of oil 70 dollars less, then the United States low-carbon industry will not survive, so he personally bullish oil prices: oil-related financial products. |
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